Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Inaction in the face of uncertainty ...

Some time ago, I posted a note about John Sterman's thoughts on whether it was a good idea to wait for more data before doing something about climate change (he was against it).

Now my alma mater has published Inaction in face of uncertainty a risky proposition in global-warming conundrum, a news story about comments on the same topic by Texas A&M University atmospheric scientist Andrew Dessler. He shows how society changes its decision-making criteria based on the inherent risk in a decision.

The two seem to agree.

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Blogger Ron Davison said...

I find it interesting that public opinion has taken so long to shift towards accepting climate change. On the one side are talk show hosts and on the other side are scientists. But I guess insurance agents can attest to the fact that there is always some gap between assessing a claim and accepting it.

06 February, 2007 15:04  
Blogger Bill Harris said...

Ron, thanks for stopping by. Yes, it sometimes seems amazing how long any change takes. Of course, sometimes that's very good; we need some time to process new ideas and decide if they merit attention or not.

This issue of delays is one of the things that initially attracted me to system dynamics as a tool, for it offers an approach to think about how one works effectively in systems with such delays.

06 February, 2007 17:01  

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