Monday, March 05, 2007

An inverted look at climate change

Peter Schwarz established his credibility some years ago with his scenario work at Royal Dutch Shell. Now a principal and cofounder of the Global Business Network, he along with Nils Gilman and Doug Randall have published a short, 25-page paper called Impacts of Climate Change.

What's different about their story is that they don't talk about climate change and its potential impacts; they look at the human and natural systems upon which we depend and how climate changes might send them towards tipping points. In other words, the path of conjecture is shorter.

I encourage you to read their paper in its entirety. Its claims seem well footnoted, although I have not studied the references yet.

After you read it, I'm curious in your responses. Where do you think our vulnerabilities lie? What can we do to ameliorate the effects of the stresses Schwarz, Gilman, and Randall describe? How should and can we modify the systems in which we live and work to make them more resilient in the face of such changes? Is this the time for a Y2K-like approach to climate change and related issues (no matter your thoughts about Y2K)?

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2 Comments:

Blogger John F said...

Bill,

I need to read it more closely, but from an initial scan the report looks well worth reading. Informed speculation on the expected effects of climate change on our lives, on security, etc. is not so common, it seems. I'll be interested to look at this in more detail.

05 March, 2007 21:16  
Blogger Bill Harris said...

Thanks, John. I'll be curious to see if you have any particular comments, either here or on your blog.

07 March, 2007 09:07  

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