Friday, November 30, 2007

A rash generalization

Friend and colleague Jay Forrest and I talk about what I find to be interesting ideas from time to time. Stimulated by an idea he once told me, I've assembled this rash generalization:

  • Income (living wages, one hopes) gets made off the production that's both necessary to support the status quo and possible because of the status quo.
  • Riches can be made off the transitions from one status quo to the other.
  • Some disasters are made off the mistaking of a transition (from point X to point Y) for a never-ending trend (from point X ever upwards at a constant CAGR) and the effort we expend to try to make it so even after we've passed that situation's limits to growth.
  • Other disasters are made when we envy the growth others exhibit and try to force our steady-state situation to match their growth.
  • Disasters may take time to materialize. Part of the art of business is recognizing turning points and responding appropriately.

What do you think? Where is your business?

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