Climate forecast: Germany
Now I'm mindful that I've recently written about the dangers of forecasting. Jay Forrest has reminded me of limitations to my claim; taken to extremes, it might suggest we can't usefully predict the rising of the sun in the morning or the need to buy food at the store (or grow it in the earth). I certainly don't mean to take it that far, and I'll write more about those limits someday.
Without having read the full report (it's 159 pages, after all), I suspect that this report can be useful if viewed at least like a scenario planning exercise: what could happen? How much in advance do we need to prepare? What are the triggers that would indicate it is time to prepare? If the time to start preparing is in the past, can we make strides in that direction without compromising our ability to deal with other futures, too? In other words, can we create robust plans for the future?
Or perhaps it's more accurate than that. I'd welcome ideas from people who have read it and have particular insights: what did you expect? What did you find? Were there any surprises? Does it seem credible?
And where are the rest of us in thinking about changes we'll face?