Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Bayes and scepticism

Yesterday, I posted a link to what I regard as an important article on modeling in general and Bayesian modeling in particular.  That seems related to articles I've written before about the utility of scepticism.  Yet the authors of that article have gone well past scepticism; in their worlds, it's not about questioning models, for they already assume the models are all wrong.  It's about learning from the gaps between models and reality, an approach Bob Williams repeatedly emphasizes in his Systems Stuff articles (see steps 5-7 of his article on soft systems, for example).

Perhaps the best link to scepticism comes from the last paragraph of that earlier posting:


If you read his [Grass's] book, note his use of a snail as a metaphor for progress: slow, persistent, and leaving behind a trail.

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